Near-Record Home Price Growth Persists, But Slowdown Underway

Home prices were 19.1 percent higher in October than the same time last year — a near-historic rate, but slightly lower than recent months, according to new S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.

Home prices soared once again in October, but offered more signs that the rate of growth may have peaked for now.

Homes sold in October went for 19.1 percent more than they did in the same month last year, a mark that was slightly slower than those of the most recent few months, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.

“That said, October’s 19.1 percent gain in the National Composite is the fourth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. “(The top three were the three months immediately preceding October.)”

Courtesy: S&P Dow Jones Indices

While the rate of price growth may be starting to slow, momentum continued to push the market forward. Prices rose by 1 percent from September to October on a seasonally adjusted basis.

In Phoenix, home prices were 32 percent higher in October than they were at the same point last year, the highest growth of the 20 large cities that the index tracks individually.

The Florida metros of Tampa and Miami each saw similar growth, with at least 25 percent year-over-year home price increases in October.

Las Vegas, Dallas and Miami followed closely behind.

In general, the South and Southeast saw the strongest annual price growth of the nine census divisions, the Case-Shiller report shows. All regions saw price growth in the double digits.

The ongoing surge in demand for homes has been attributed to numerous possible causes, from the rise in remote work to the entry of groups that had been sitting out of the home market prior to the pandemic.

The S&P Dow Jones Indices had previously pointed to changes in where people wanted to live during the pandemic to explain the rise in housing demand, but it remains unknown how safe this growth will be, Lazzara said.

“More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years, or reflects a more permanent secular change,” Lazzara said.

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